Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be a flop
I made a prediction model for the domestic opening and overall gross of blockbuster movies. I can probably push it to to months before release, but I first wanted to see how accurate it is for the release of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. If it seems like a worthy pursuit, I will refine the model to predict a few more releases in 2020.
Here is my prediction: The Rise of Skywalker will have a box office opening in the USA between $98M and $177M, thus lower than The Last Jedi at $220M but higher than Solo at $84M. The movie will be released on December 18.
Update: The domestic opening is now known, it was $175.5M, which is within my range. My model is not perfect, but it might be worth improving in the future.